Vulnerability Assessment and Spatio-Temporal Pattern of COVID-19 outbreak in West Bengal using GIS

Abstract

A number of sources, including the COVID-19 data from Health and Family Welfare, Govt. of West Bengal and demographic data from the Census of India (2011) etc. have been used for this analysis. Two time period from May 2, 2021, to March 6, 2022, comprehensive COVID-19 related data for 23 districts of West Bengal served as the basis for this analytical investigation. Maps are created using ArcGIS software and COVID-19  incidence rate, mortality rate etc. are calculated using several methods while taking into account all potential outcomes. Different indicators like population density, urban population and distance from Kolkata are used to create a composite index of vulnerability at the district level. The vulnerability index was calculated using a geographically weighted regression index. Most of the Southern districts like North 24 Paragana, Kolkata, South 24 Paragana etc. are found to be highly vulnerable. Whereas, most of the northern and western districts are found to be less vulnerable.  This disparity in vulnerability can be attributed to various factors, including socioeconomic conditions, infrastructure resilience, and access to resources. The investigation of the concentration point of any geographical phenomenon is known as the spatial mean centre. This study implies that there was minimal temporal fluctuation between May 2, 2021, to March 6, 2022, and the mean centre of COVID-19 cases was situated quite near to the southern region of West Bengal. Spatial mean centre and directional distribution clearly indicates nearness to Kolkata exacerbates the COVID-19 incidence rate. Consequently, targeted interventions may be necessary in the more affected areas to enhance their adaptive capacity and reduce risks.